Le FMI félicite la politique fiscale de Maurice

Le dernier staff report du Fonds monétaire international (FMI) pour Maurice, rendu public vendredi, a félicité notre pays pour la mise en place d’un plan fiscal pour stimuler l’économie.

“The authorities’ policy response was commendably prompt and comprehensive, including a fiscal stimulus package of some 5 percent of GDP over the period July 2009-December 2010. The package is well-targeted and temporary, intended to cushion the economy against the impact of the crisis. The government was prescient in having saved some 3 percent of GDP in special funds for such a rainy day. For its post-crisis strategy, the key challenge will be to resume fiscal consolidation without jeopardizing the recovery. Given the uncertain outlook, the government has rightly decided to keep some stimulus measures contingent; the 2010 deficit is now expected to be 4½ percent of GDP”, indique le staff report.

Selon le FMI, la croissance économique de Maurice a brusquement ralenti suite à la crise financière mondiale, mais rebondira l’année prochaine. La croissance est passée de 4,2 % par an en 2008 à moins de 2 % en 2009 alors que l’activité des principaux secteurs de la croissance (tourisme, textile et construction) se contractait.

Les perspectives de croissance de Maurice dépendent largement de l’économie mondiale.

Quant au taux d’inflation, il est retombé en raison des cours en baisse de l’alimentation et des matières premières et au ralentissement de l’économie domestique. La balance des paiements déficitaire s’est rétrécie alors que les importations en baisse ont compensé la contraction de la demande externe.

“Further fiscal consolidation is important to reduce risks inherent to a relatively high level of public debt. DSAs show that public and external debt should remain sustainable over the medium term. The 2008 Public Debt Management Act will serve to instill fiscal discipline and help ensure debt remains sustainable.

With inflationary pressures subdued, and the economic outlook uncertain, the monetary policy stance appears appropriate. In the wake of the crisis, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Mauritius (BoM) reduced the key Repo rate to 5.75 percent per year in successive steps and has kept it unchanged over the past few months pending further indication of the state of the economy. The BoM has refrained from intervention since December 2008, and the floating exchange rate has remained stable against the U.S. dollar”, soutient le FMI dans son rapport.

“Le système bancaire mauricien a résisté à l’impact de l’agitation financière mondiale. Les pratiques de la gestion prudentes des banques, leurs bilans initiaux forts et la ‘ Mauritius Approach’ — offrant de l’aide financière provisoire aux sociétés affectées par la crise a aidé le système financier a résisté”.

“Measures to enhance efficiency in the public sector and to meet SDDS subscription requirements are well under way. Labor market reforms have been enacted, and service delivery and efficiency of the public sector is improving, especially in regard to social protection. The authorities are on track to improve the coverage of external statistics and to apply for SDDS subscription by mid-2010. The authorities broadly agreed with the staff’s assessment and recommendations”, indique les analyses du FMI.

“A Maurice, les finances publiques sont fondamentalement saines et la dette publique est soutenable sur le moyen terme; la nouvelle Public Debt Management Act fournit les garanties additionnelles. Avec le lancement en 2005 d’une large stratégie de réforme, le gouvernement a mis en application le ‘program-based budgeting’ dans un cadre de dépenses à moyen terme et la nouvelle loi sur la dette stipule une réduction de la dette publique à hauteur de
50 % du PIB d’ici 2013”, explique le staff report.

Depuis que l’assainissement budgétaire a commencé en 2005, la dette publique est passée de 80 % du PIB en 2003 à 54 % en 2008. L’analyse progressiste de debt sustainability analysis (DSA) suggère que la dette publique demeure soutenable sur le moyen terme.

“It incorporates the fiscal stimulus measures, which are projected to push the deficit up to 4 % of GDP in calendar 2009 and 4.5 % in 2010 from about 3 % in 2007 and 2008. Based on this scenario, public debt peaks at slightly below 60 % of GDP in 2009 before falling to 52 % in 2014, the end of the projection period. This adjustment is consistent with commitments under the Public Debt Management Act, which limits public sector debt to 60 % of GDP and targets a medium-term reduction to 50 % under “normal” circumstances. The results of standardized tests do not alter the general assessment because no scenario raises the debt ratio above levels observed as recently as 2004. Indeed, the only scenario in which debt exceeds the authorities’ own limit of 60 % of GDP is when the primary deficit remains at its 2009 level over the full projection horizon (2009-14; Table 1); however, the authorities do not intend to maintain the deficit at its 2009 level, which was relatively large due to the economic downturn and stimulus. The medium-term scenario is also quite resilient to macroeconomic shocks: if growth were about 1 % lower than projected, the debt-to-GDP ratio would increase to 56 % of GDP”, soutient le FMI dans son staff report.

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