Blog: Broken Alliance - what Next?

How can we trust politicians after the sayings and doings and general behavior of Pravind Jugnauth and his team during the last few days?

When he cut short his mission in Europe to promote investment and came back to show his solidarity to his former Minister of Health after her arrest by ICAC and subsequent release and forcing his ministers to resign in protest against the doing of things of ICAC, he had publicly expressed his loyalty to the Prime Minister and the governing alliance. He had maintained all other MSM nominees in post.

Now that he is out and brought his party in opposition, he finds fault with the Prime Minister and other Labour colleagues. How unbecoming! When his ministers had resigned, they had high hopes to be back in their seats on the return of the Prime Minister.

But then came the Soodhun episode. The Leader of the Opposition, Paul Berenger is reported to have revealed to ICAC that the senior minister who had accused the Prime Minister of receiving Dr. Malhotra and phoning the Chief Valuer to revise Medpoint price upwards was Soodhun. No denial till now.

How can the PM take back in Cabinet a minister who was disseminating false news about his own Prime Minister? No such person deserves to be minister. And Pravind Jugnauth himself? The rumor is that there are high risks that ICAC is going to question him and arrest him for his role in the Medpoint deal. In order to avoid the humiliation or being arrested as a minister and then stepping down, he has preferred to drive his troop out of government and alliance. If this happens to him as a simple MP, he may be seen to be a victim.

Let us honestly face it. Events have shown that he does not have the maturity and experience to gauge public opinion and the maturity of the public. On the other hand, the PM completed his mission, kept his cool and won public opinion on his side just by issuing a communiqué asserting his faith in the independence of our institution. All political analysts supported his stand. He came out stronger.

It is said that he offered to take back only three MSM ministers initially. Of course this offer was unacceptable to the MSM. He reconstituted his Cabinet by including four new ministers including one from MSM. He has left two Cabinet posts unoccupied. He has skillfully promoted Anil Baichoo as Vice Prime Minister and appointed Xavier Duval as Minister of Finance.

All MSM appointees and advisors have been asked to step down. A survey has shown that the rank and file of MSM is not happy with the leadership. Being out of power for five years, having been let down by the MMM which had split their party and the Jugnauth family with their leader himself having lost his seat in 2005 election, they had found a savior and a messiah in Navin Ramgoolam.

Navin Ramgoolam had ensured the victory and return of Pravind Jugnauth in the by-election when the seat of Ashock Jugnauth became vacant. Ashock Jugnauth lost his seat after he was proved guilty of corruption. He had offered them eighteen seats mostly in secure Labour dominated constituencies. Twelve were returned, six were made ministers, three PPS and one Deputy Speaker. A more than fair share and deal.

But who can stop the wheel of time? Sir Anerood would have said the wheel of destiny. I remember the foundation days of the MSM. Together with my friends, I was there to add some grains of sand on the bridge between Labour and MSM. The bridge, Harish Boodhoo was building between MSM and Labour. To maintain Sir Anerood in power, Boodhoo had dissolved his party PSM, merged it with MSM, and gave it his newspaper, Le Socialiste.

Sir Anerood had a grand mission and vision, to develop Mauritius economically, create and give jobs to the unemployed. Every Labourite willingly subscribed to this vision. Sir Seewoosagur even agreed not to contest the election. He agreed to serve under the leadership of Sir Anerood for the 1983 snap elections. Labour, PMSD and MSM alliance won. Although MSM was a minority party, Sir Anerood governed single handedly with full Labour and PMSD support until he decided to dump them and make a new alliance with MMM. Before that Harish Boodhoo himself had resigned in disgust.

There is nothing new in alliances being made and unmade between all parties in Mauritius. There is no such thing as loyalty, "parole donnée parole sacrée" or gratitude in politics. Self interest and self preservation is the policy which always prevail. Of course there are some who stick to their principles and beliefs. But they are marginalised.

Sir Anerood after throwing Labour and PMSD out and winning again with MMM again split the MMM, threw it out and governed with the splinter group RMM of Prem Nababsing. In 1995, MMM took its revenge, made and alliance with Navin Ramgoolam and won all seats. Navin Ramgoolam also in his turn threw the MMM out. For the 2000 elections, when everybody expected a three-cornered fight, all opposition parties MMM and MSM and disgruntled Labourites joined hands to defeat Navin Ramgoolam. Harish Boodhoo, the architect for this winning team was ignored. This power-sharing winning agreement between MMM and MSM made Paul Berenger Prime Minister for two years, allowed Sir Anerood to move to Le Réduit as President after handing over the leadership to his son Pravind Jugnauth. A similar power sharing agreement failed to win in 2005.

Navin Ramgoolam having assembled all Labourites behind him single-handedly defeated MMM and MSM. Pravind Jugnauth was not even elected.

What insults have not Paul Berenger and Pravind Jugnauth exchanged on each other? How disgusting for Pravind Jugnauth to rush so soon at Le Labourdonnais Hotel in the arms of Paul Berenger, now that the Medpoint venue is gone. A lawyer told me that in a divorce case the law provides for a gap of three months before a spouse can go back to a former spouse. Coming together so soon is just indecent. Paul Berenger and MMM seem to be the temporary winners. They raised the Medpoint and Soodhun issues, cause the MSM to leave and have tried to weaken both Labour and MSM.

But they should beware of the maturity of the Labour and the MSM followers who have given them a mandate to govern together. In the present circumstances, MSM has betrayed this mandate. MSM has got an opportunity to form a third force with a wider vision for the country. But it is not in the culture for MSM to work for such a cause. It has always ridden on the shoulders of others. Sir Anerood had the caliber to do so. Does Pravind have it? Time will tell. The followers of the alliance have gambled on the patience of Pravind Jugnauth to wait for his turn when Navin Ramgoolam would have moved to Le Réduit after handling over the premiership to Pravind Jugnauth. All their hopes shattered after the MSM abdicated its mandate to serve under Navin Ramgoolam.

In politics, simple arithmetic does not work. In 2005, Labour won with 38 to 22 seats to combine MMM and MSM. In 2010, MSM got 12 seats but in Labour rural constituencies. Although today MMM and MSM have some 30 seats, there is no guarantee that MSM will be able to retain those seats. They will have to bank on MMMs secured seats to get them elected. Then how can they expect to return to power? The present numbers will never add up. Labour and Navin Ramgoolam has got a golden opportunity to consolidate the structure of the Labour Party and its power base, build a winning machinery for the next general elections. It is in these circumstances that Navin Ramgoolam is at his best.