Blog: MMM - Now or Never?

No party seems to be in such a hurry - I would say desperate - to be in power - for power's sake? - as MMM today. In fact, its desperation started before the last general elections when it failed to clinch an alliance with Labour.

The MMM had rightly concluded then that it could not win on its own. It needed Labour. It had accepted Navin Ramgoolam as Prime Minister, but it had committed the mistake of believing that Navin Ramgoolam will choose the easy way to win and be Prime Minister in alliance with MMM. MMM has started believing as if it was already in power. Of course a Labour/MMM alliance would have swept the polls.

There was also a very strong current in Labour which favoured the easy way and supported the idea. They also had underestimated Navin Ramgoolam. With his maturity, experience and understanding of the fabric of the Mauritian society, Navin Ramgoolam knew that he would be a weak Prime Minister with MMM. He chose the hard way, fought in alliance with PMSD and MSM and won a handsome victory.

MMM has not been able yet to digest the defeat. From day one it has polished a strategy of breaking the government by trying to drive a wedge between Labour and MSM. It is cashing on the frustration of Labour MPs and supporters. They project MSM ministers as performers and MSM supporters of getting the lion's share. Except for the Medpoint affair. They have even gone to the extent of accusing the Prime Minister of being responsible for settling Medpoint deal. The Prime Minister has reported the case to the police accusing Paul Bérenger of disseminating false news.

Everybody should concede that MMM did well during the last general elections. It polled 43% of the votes, got its representatives elected in Quatre Bornes, Black River, Long Mountain, Plaine Verte, Vacoas and constituency number 2. Even Ramjuttun polled 17,000 votes in PM's constituency at Triolet. Some of its candidates like Ajay Guness and Atma Bumma lost marginally by a few hundred votes.

Then why this hurry and desperation to be in power? In a democracy the opposition constitutes an alternative government. It has to wait the natural process of the next general elections. In special circumstances, an early election could be called if the ruling party is defeated on the floor of the house on major issues like budget or presidential address. Even then the PM is given a chance to constitute a new majority or has the prerogative to fix the next general elections.

Today, the MMM had a strong experienced team. Some have proved to be good and successful ministers in their career. Still, within the MMM, a good majority feel that the MMM with its present structure cannot win the next general elections. It will not be able to rally majority of votes in majority of constituencies particularly in rural ones.

They know that finally the outcome will depend on the leadership issue - Navin Ramgoolam or Paul Bérenger. Navin Ramgoolam has also been defeated in 1991 and 2000. In 1991 he got himself elected on top but could not carry his two candidates in 2000 as Prime Minister. He was defeated by a team led by Sir Anerood Jugnauth supported by Paul Bérenger and Harish Boodhoo.

But Navin Ramgoolam led his party to victory in 1995 with the support of Paul Bérenger. In 2005, he defeated both Paul Bérenger and MdSM and retained power in 2010 in an alliance with MSM and PMSD.

The history of Paul Bérenger and MMM has shown that they are good in opposition, can help others to become prime minister and enjoy power only in coalition. In 1976, it became the largest single party but could not get a majority. In 1982, with the support of a splinter Labour group PSM, led by Harish Boodhoo, it swept the polls, won all seats polling more than 65% votes. SSR, the father of the nation was personally defeated and humiliated.

The only occasion MMM could have won on its own with Paul Bérenger as Prime Minister was in 1982. But nobody could have stopped the destiny of Sir Anerood Jugnauth. He became MMM's Prime Minister. On a compromise, Paul Bérenger also became PM for two years in 2003 with the support of Sir Anerood Jugnauth.

In order to understand the present state of mind of MMM and its leaders, their frustration and desperation we should cast a glance on its history and its historical leader. In the early seventies, MMM was born and brought fresh air in Mauritian politics. Paul Bérenger became the idol of youths and workers. He filled the vacuum left by PMSD when Gaetan Duval joined government in a post independence coalition. PMSD was left headless. Youths and workers were disillusioned. Unemployment was at its peak. A mono-crop economy based on sugar could not sustain post independent aspirations of the people.

MMM and Paul Bérenger presented themselves as heirs of original Labour party of Dr. Maurice Curé. They promised to improve the lot of workers, bring agrarian reforms, social and economic justice by distributing wealth of the former 14 families. They organized the young people and workers in militant trade unions. In 1995, Mauritius knew its own form of student's revolt. In the seventies, MMM organised paralyzing strikes.

But once in power, we still remember how Paul Bérenger snatched the mike from Sir Anerood live on TV. Sir Anerood was about to announce a 30% pay hike to workers. As Minister of Finance, Paul Bérenger said "poêlon chaud". He refused to preside over tripartite meetings, abandoned the trade unions and is perceived even as having repressed them. Maybe he woke up to the economic reality of a changed world. Most of the original members of the MMM who idolised him felt betrayed and left.

Sir Anerood split it and founded his own party MSM. Harish Boodhoo dissolved the PSM and integrated the MSM and together in a new coalition with Labour and PMSD and the blessings of SSR ran the country for thirteen years.

I also observed that political leaders commit and repeat the same mistakes. Nobody thought that Sir Anerood and Paul Bérenger will work together again as they did in 1991 and 2000, nor Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Bérenger in 1995. Who could have believed that Sir Anerood Jugnauth, Paul Bérenger and Harish Boodhoo will work together again to chase Navin Ramgoolam from power in 2000 and Navin Ramgoolam and Pravind Jugnauth coming together in 2010 to defeat Paul Bérenger?

Another constant feature which these leaders fail to assess and manage is the 5 - 10% floating votes and floating opinion leaders. I have noticed that since 1983, wherever they have tilted victory has gone there. Only Navin Ramgoolam has become a master today in managing this floating vote and floating opinions leaders. They carry his message and give him the winning edge.

Another feature is that both Labour and MSM have changed their leaders. Labour several times. Credit should be given to Pravind Jugnauth that after his separation with MMM he led his party in power under Navin Ramgoolam.

Paul Bérenger has always been a losing leader. He can make others win or win with others but never alone. He has personally suffered defeat both at municipal and general elections. Once he did not get enough votes to benefit from the best loser system. For the next general elections, I can imagine and see Navin Ramgoolam leading his party to victory and becoming PM. Can anybody imagine Paul Bérenger doing the same? Unfortunately MMM does not have yet a mechanism to ensure succession. Even the majority of the MMM supporters cannot see their historical leader go.

Does this not explain the hurry and desperation of MMM to break the government and join Navin. Most of the leaders are growing old and have tasted power. They know that it is now or never. This is their stubborn headache.